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Friday, May 31, 2013

So You Want To Go To Syria?

I don't. But apparently many on the Right seem to think that because it's bad to kill your citizens and the President said something about a "red" line once upon a time, that by default makes us required to go in and clean up an ongoing civil war in another Muslim country where we won't be welcomed. Ok, from a concerned American approach I get it, but let me ask you this: What the hell makes Syria so special?

Look around the region, kids. Syria isn't the only government killing its people in a desperate attempt to maintain what control it has left, it's only the latest. Play "Pin the Tail on the Map of Africa" and you'll win every time when it comes to the selection of an unstable government by means of pin placement. Forget nation building, lets do continent building!

Anybody who's in the military right now or any American with a family member or relative probably understands our Area of Operations (AO) in the Middle East. Over the past decade we've done great things in Iraq and Afghanistan and effectively surrounded that other country some on the Right can't seem to wait and blow up, Iran. With a sustained troop presence planned for quite some time, despite what the Clown Car Driver tells you, moving into Syria if called upon to do so, or Jordan, Turkey, or wherever else necessary to launch Syrian nullification operations, we as a military force could do it. But what's the point? Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is stuck fighting the oh so honorable and freshest Sunni/Shiite conflict that he can't win, against a largely Al-Qaeda backed rebel force that we can't support. I mean other than with pom-poms from a cookout with live look ins on TV rooting for both sides to keep up the good work, of course.

This isn't our fight, America. I don't care what Senator John McCain tries to sell by vacationing abroad with rebel commanders. I respect everything that man ever did during Vietnam and the hell he went through as a Prisoner of War from 1967 - 1973, but if you think America needs another war or "overseas contingency operation", then by all means head down to the local recruiters office and sign up. Give them my name so I can get a referral bonus. At least that way I could take you serious. As for McCain, he's a walking lobbyist for term limits. I don't care about Obama's red line comment. Everyone, including Assad, knew then he didn't really mean it. He would have been better of deferring to allies in the region or even better, laying the ball at the feet of China.

Why not China? Why do we allow them to be one of five to sit at the big boy table as permanent members of the UN Security Council? In the Global War on Terror, what the hell have they done but move in to profit from the vast natural resources discovered in Afghanistan that we refused to do while in Iraq? What the hell has this "mighty" emerging military and economic giant done to help make the world a better place against radical Islam? Not a damn thing. France? They've been in the fight with us since day one. The United Kingdom? Self-explanatory. Russia? Without them we couldn't transport equipment safely into and out of Afghanistan. China? Not a damn thing. Some are so eager to talk about the wonders of China and how their hybrid system of organizing government and economic affairs is the wave of the future, well lets find out! I mean we all know how much they respect "Human Rights" as we claim this is what it's all about. Give them the microphone on the world stage they so desperately crave and lets see what kind of knowledge they drop. Apparently everyone is so enthralled with their military build up, lets see how they do logistically. Hell, they don't even have to go that far or cross an ocean to do so. This should be cake work for the tip of the spear Chinese, right? Show us! I legitimately want to see this. If I'm a senior military official recommending courses of action to the commander in chief, I'm uttering repeatedly the name "China" to the point where I'm asked to leave the room while holding a phone that was made in China with Xi Jinping on the line.

Syria admittedly is a world problem. I got it. But this one is not ours to solve. After 12 years of combat operations, it damn sure isn't the burden of our military to bear. Our men and women in uniform need a break. It's time to go to the bull pen. China, you've got the mound.

Sunday, December 09, 2012

Game Theory NFL Picks Week 14

What, no welcome back parade? I know I've been AWOL for quite a bit this season due to a variety of factors, however, let's worry not about them and worry more about this cash we are about to pry from the coffers of the 702 area code. Prepare to copy:

Chiefs +7 At Browns: I'm sorry, remind me again who the Browns are and why they are 7 point favorites. Sure, the Chiefs are a tire fire but Brady Quinn has looked like a decent QB lately and is finally getting the chance he never got on a sustained basis in Cleveland to prove what he can do. Plus, I like a guy with a chip on his shoulder heading back to a city that gave up on him, especially when that city still fields a train wreck for a team week in and week out. I also loved the heart the Chiefs showed after the Belcher incident that played out last week. Both teams are nothing to write home about but I'll take the Chiefs and the points. As you should.

Colts -6 Vs Titans- Always the type of game where you take the underdog in this matchup based on the familiarity factor but I can't do it this Sunday. The Titans are terrible against the forward pass and have entirely too much to ask for Christmas from Santa for this season to catch up with a Colts team that has gotten better each week. I like Andrew Luck at home to give the rejuvenated Indy fans something to be thankful for this holiday season as they march closer to a playoff berth and send the Titans to the draft war room early and also get cracking on their search for a new coach.

Dolphins +11 At Niners- I think the shiny, new paint of Colin Kaepernick has begun to chip a bit and Jim Harbaugh is going to regret pulling the trigger on Alex Smith after really one good game against the Bears. Defense won in New Orleans with two touch downs and a lackluster loss in St. Louis is what the Niners have to show for giving in to the hype of what could be in the face of what they know. Don't be surprised if Smith takes some snaps again this season. Nothing against Kaepernick, I like him, but it's playoff race time. Experimentation is for college dorm rooms and the preseason. I'll take the 11 all day.

Cardinals +10 At Seattle- Again, this is a division game. No division game spread should ever be double digits. I'm not saying there aren't double digit victories, because there obviously are, every week. I'm just saying that from a money making angle, there is no reason unless in the case of superior offensive and defensive teams, do you ever take a double digit favorite. The Cardinals have a solid pass rush and a very angry Darnell Dockett lining up preparing to chase down the Bear Killer, Russell Wilson. I like the Seahawks late, and the money early.

Texans +4- When I look at the Texans, I see the Patriots of the mid 2000's. Great offense and a defense that can win just in case it has to. They haven't played great defense as of late but last week's game against an anemic Titans squad could have been the confidence boost they need to step up on a big stage against the NFL's best QB and Coach combo since Montana and Walsh. You know what you will get out of Brady and Belly, you still can't quite say that about Schaub and Kubs'. I think the difference in this game is the RB position and Arian Foster in the passing game. Shootout with the Texans taking it late in an upset at Foxboro.

GO GET PAID!!(I will)

Monday, November 12, 2012

REVIEW - Hip To Be Square: Why It's Cool To Be A Conservative by A.J. Delgado

Whatever you're expecting from this book, toss it out. It's not a plea for your conversion nor is it a policy book by any means. It's a confirmation and reaffirmation of what we Conservatives know and also a bit of a lesson in what we didn't know to be irrefutably true: Conservatives are just cooler than the rest. AJ argues that Conservatism is cool because it stands for something, something definable, measurable, and based in reality, not theory. She assaults you with quote after quote from pop culture, history, influential figures, politicians, and just enough personal experience and anecdotal evidence to prove that Conservatism is not a passing fad, but a bedrock political philosophy that in this day and media age takes actual conviction to stick to.

Starting every chapter with seemingly the answer to any doubters questions with "Because" lays the foundational principles of her theme on everything from proof that you think for yourself, musical and comedy examples like Johnny Ramone and Katt Williams, a brilliant chapter on economics, the case for military men's sex appeal (clearly a chapter about me), wonderful historical perspective on the Crusades, a powerfully written chapter on the Nazi's, Communism, the Tea Party and Occupy movements, the myths of Global Warming, and without giving away too much, the undeniable truth about President Barack Obama. Toss in the eye opening and hilarious perspective on South Park and its creators and you have a damn good book that will leave you enlightened, entertained, and most importantly looking for some ink, paper, and a good printer because it belongs in your library.

Grab your copy of it here. Do it. http://www.amazon.com/Hip-To-Square-Conservative-ebook/dp/B009R7V4O8/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1352733227&sr=8-1&keywords=hip+to+be+square

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Game Theory NFL Picks Week 6

Couldn't get a write up posted in time for the NCAA action but if you follow me on Twitter @EricBandazewski, you will notice I tweeted out my 6 games today earlier this morning. Not wanting to give you a repeat of that with the NFL, prepare to copy:

Patriots -4 At Seahawks- Tough spot to play but not when you don't have an offense that can keep pace with a streaking Tom Brady and company. New England's defense will have to focus on containing Marshawn Lynch and let Russel Wilson beat them through the air. I trust him, I don't trust his WR's. Pats by more than enough.

Texans -3 Vs Packers- Packers are a shell of what they were last year. The defense is a train wreck when it comes to consistency and has no business blowing an 18 point half time lead to a rookie QB. The offense hasn't look impressive and now they are back to having no ground game with the shelfing of Cedric Benson. Jermichael Finley is crying about lack of chemistry and Jennings still isn't 100%. As for the Texans, they have all of the opposite problems. As in none. Texans cruise.

Falcons -10 Vs Raiders- This is one of those times where a team shouldn't get on the plane. The Raiders are a defensive tire fire and will not be able to keep up if that dome crowd gets going. This is the blowout of the week.

Ravens -3 Vs Cowboys- Dallas back on the field after getting bottle rocketed by the Bears but this isn't the place to find out if their head is back in it and if Tony Romo likes throwing to the right team or not. Ed Reed should have a classic Ed Reed day and Ray Rice will run all over that terrible Cowboys Run defense.

Chargers Pick 'em
Vs Broncos- Mostly hype with the Broncos this year and Peyton Manning. 2-3 and not much else to show for it other than some lackluster wins. Heading into a tough atmosphere for a Monday nighter didn't work too well for Manning before, I don't see him out performing Phillip Rivers. Chargers grab the W.

GO GET PAID!! (On it.)

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Game Theory Recap Week 5

Tossing out the Vegas picks because I didn't properly post them here in this space, only on Twitter, we were 14-16-1 before a healthy 6-2 weekend bringing us up to 20-18-1 on the young year. Starting to steer in the right direction Theorists. Remember, it's a long season. We will keep fighting the good, profitable fight. As you should.

Sunday, October 07, 2012

Game Theory NFL Picks Week 5

Turned in a solid Saturday yesterday for the account. As most of you know, College Football hasn't been kind to the public this year. Anytime we can take 3 out of 4 games from Vegas, it's a great day. Let's carry that cash over into the NFL. Prepare to copy:

Falcons -3 At Redskins- I was more than disappointed with the Redskins home debut as it shows me that 90,000 fans can't offer any support to a terrible defense. While they are putting up 30 a game, they are surrendering the same amount. Points is not the issue for the Falcons and they are a complete team capable of shootouts or suffocating the opposition. Carolina was a good wake up for them. Teams they should boatrace, they need to. They will today.

Packers -7 At Indianapolis- Colts have a ton on their minds with the temporary exit of their coach. If a veteran QB like Peyton Manning was there still to lead this team through adversity, I could see a better outcome. Luck is going to be a good player but this is a lot to handle in an early career and this team will crack after some early Packers scores. Maybe ride the emotion wave early but the second half should see the Packers pull away.

Giants -8 Vs Cleveland- Everyone keeps saying how the Browns haven't lost by more than 10 points this season. What, is that like a gold star around here? It's the NFL, that is nothing to be proud of. The fact is they are not a good football team, despite some defensive flashes. Brandon Weeden is okay but he's not ready to go on the road and upset Eli Manning and a Giants team that actually needs a win after falling late to Philadelphia last week. No Nicks for the Giants but they won't need him. Giants Cruz....see what I did there? Yeah, I know.

Patriots -7 Vs Broncos- It's good to see Manning back and tossing the ball effectively again. At least that is what we were all led to believe after he torched the Raiders. I mean, after all, it is the Raiders! Just Lose, Baby! Come on. While I expect a close game early, this will go the way of last week with the Bills. I am not saying New England tacks on 45 points in a half, but as we have seen, Manning will be throwing the ball and can throw a few or 3 into the hands of the wrong team. I think the New England defense will force some timely INT's and the Pats will convert those to points. Preferably touchdowns and not field goals.

GO GET PAID!! (Working on it)

Saturday, October 06, 2012

NCAA Game Theory Picks Week 6

I tossed the picks up from Vegas sans write up last week. I'll recap them along with this week's once we exit the cash cage. Good weekend out there but still fighting to get a fighting grip on the college games. NFL we are doing swimmingly. But we aren't here to solve the case of the missing NFL money, now are we? Prepare to copy.

Florida +3 Vs LSU- You kind of knew LSU would get caught looking ahead to this game. The only difference is Florida was caught looking ahead to it as well, minus the fact they didn't have to play a meaningless game. They're going to be as well rested as you can during a football season after a bye and they've had the extra time to prepare as well. LSU is currently playing without much of a forward passing game and while Les Miles always has something in his bag of tricks for big games, ultimately his forced fixation with the run game will do him in on the road against a very tough Florida defense. Gators win outright.

Oklahoma - 4 At Texas Tech- Tech may have the best defense in the world right now but its because they're schedule looks like they have played other colleges from around the world. Landry Jones is a veteran QB and will have no problem moving the ball and putting up points. Tech isn't an easy place to play on the road but the days of the Pirate at the helm are long gone. I like the Sooners by a touchdown.

South Carolina -1 Vs Georgia- Essentially a pick'em game here. Georgia's defense is schizophrenic and the South Carolina offense with Conner Shaw and Marcus Lattimore knows how to make the Bulldogs forget their medication. Shaw has shown some fragility but even if Dylan Thompson comes off the bench, they will move the chains and keep the pressure on Georgia. One of these teams seasons will essentially end today for in the SEC its Naty title or bust. Were the locations switched, I'd go Georgia but I think the Ol' Ball Coach pulls this one out over Mark Richt.

Mizzou -7 Vs Vanderbilt- Vandy's biggest problem aside from not belonging anywhere near the Southeastern Conference during football season is that they can't score any points. Still some uncertainty at Quarterback and they don't play well on the road. Missouri can be a tough spot and their crowd is still looking for their first win inside the SEC. They should acquire said win pretty easily. Tigers by 2 touchdowns.

GO GET PAID!! (I'm trying)


Sunday, September 23, 2012

Game Theory NFL Picks Week 3

About the only thing we're doing well around here this season is picking NFL contests against the number. I am definitely going to need to maintain that reality heading into Vegas. Last chance before I come at you from there. Prepare to copy:

New England +3 At Baltimore- I love Tom Brady and Bill Belli in bounce back games, especially in ones where the offense looked as bad as it did. Baltimore lost a tough one to Philly so they will be fired up too but traditionally this is not a team who's defense matches up well with the Pats. Wes Welker has gone milk carton but this looks as good a time as any to reemerge with Hernandez out for a stretch. Not quite calling for a Pats win but should be within the digit.

Tampa Bay +8 At Dallas- I don't think the Cowboys are 8 points better than anyone. They're coming off a terrible performance out in Seattle and the Bucs blew a huge lead on the road against the Giants. Both teams have to right the ship here to keep pace early on in their divisions. This could go the way of a shootout and I think the Bucs proved they can put enough points on the board between Jackson and Freeman to keep this within the margin of error. Cowboys pull out a close one.

New Orleans -9 Vs Kansas City- Love this game the most. Totally what the Saints need right now. 2 terrible defensive performances early and now they return home to pound on the pinata that is the Kansas City Chiefs. I think this is where the Saints offense starts to resemble what we've come to expect from Brees and company and their defense responds to a raucus crowd. The Chiefs are in a no man's land. They've moved the ball well but their defense has been a tire fire. Toss in this free trip to New Orleans and they've got 0-3 written all over them. Hello money!

San Francisco -7 At Minnesota- Did the Niners join the NFC Norse? 3rd straight foe for them and also will be their 3rd straight win. They're looking efficient on both sides of the ball and Christian Ponder of the Vikings is going to have a very difficult time getting the chains moved. Adrian Peterson is going to be relied on to collect most of the offense and while the Niners haven't faced a back like him yet this early in the year, they still aren't giving up much yards or big plays on the ground. Alex Smith may be encouraged by Randall Moss returning to Minnesota and should connect on a few big plays against a less than qualified secondary. His ego requires it. Niners by 10.

Redskins -3 Vs Bengals- Bengals appear to have taken a step back despite how solid they looked to be coming last season. Andy Dalton and AJ Green are a dangerous combo but the problem has been their defense, always a strength under Marvin Lewis. RG3 and the Redskins offense have had no issues putting up points and picking up yardage in two road performances. Now they head home for their opener in front of a crowd that has to be feeling pretty good about their QB and that hiring of Mike Shannahan a few years back. Biggest stadium in the league and will definitely be heard today. I actually think this one could go bad, real bad, Michael Jackson. Redskins easy.

GO GET PAID!!(I will)

Friday, September 21, 2012

Game Theory NCAA Picks Week 4

No time for novel intros, not after last weeks showing. Right into the action. Prepare to copy:

Baylor -8 at Louisiana-Monroe- You know me, I like a good home dog in prime time on TV all by itself like the Warhawks will be BUT....this one opened up at 9.5 so everyone is already all over that. I know Baylor is a lackluster 0-5 ATS on the road lately but Louisiana-Monroe is still going to be outmatched across the board in terms of talent and that will bare out come 4th quarter. I like a close game throughout but see Baylor sneaking out with a 10 point Victy as they have suffered no offensive setbacks despite losing last year's Heisman Trophy recipient in RG3. Baylor coverage

Florida St -14 Vs Clemson- None of these teams have really been tested yet but I'm not so sure it matters when it comes to the Seminoles. They've given up 3 points in 3 games and with a defense like that, offense is secondary to the outcome. Clemson has put up a lot of yards and I think they may move the ball a bit but they aren't going to be putting up a ton of points on this FSU defense. Conversely, Clemson has looked anything but unstoppable when they don't have the ball and FSU will be able to stack some points up. They should pull away and easily cover the 14.

South Florida -9 At Ball State- You know why I feel great about the Bulls here? Because this game doesn't matter and no one will be watching. Just the type of environment USF QB B.J. Daniels thrives in! Ball State is exactly the type of football school you would think they are and will do just enough to lose. Should this go the other way, Skip Holz better pack up his house and peace out. But knowing the way USF's Athletic Director operates, he'll probably get another contract extensy. Bulls by 2 touchdowns.

Notre Dame -6 Vs Michigan- I know the Wolverines have owned the Irish the past few years and pretty much all time but this game will be different this year because of the defenses. Michigan got bailed out by the theatrics of Denard Robinson last season who led an unthinkable and TV saving (for me) come back to topple Notre Dame 35-31. I don't see how they get anywhere close to 5 touchdowns this time around on the road against a very stout defense. Whatever points they get will be easily answered back because of the total lack of defense Michigan has and they're inability to stop the run and Notre Dame has been pounding the ball too well in the young season to foster any confidence in Michigan to stop them. Irish cover.

Vandy +14 At Georgia- You know what Georgia's problem is? They don't know how to put teams away and they aren't consistent enough on defense. That's the total opposite of how Vandy plays and their defense is capable of keeping them in the game and other teams off the board for a stretch. Look what they did against a South Carolina team who I still think is better than Georgia. I know Vandy just got done playing the local Church team last week but Georgia played a school that up until a few years ago didn't even have a football team....and gave up 20 points. They aren't a focused bunch and I think Vandy can give them just enough of a scare to provide us with a nice cash infusion. Georgia by 10.

GO GET PAID!! (I will)

Game Theory Recap Week 3

Another profitable week overall after deploying the cash money clean up crew on the NFL. 3-1-1 there coupled with a less than respectable 2-3 showing in the NCAA version of football gave us a 5-4-1 haul for the week and upped the season total to 11-9-1. Final weekend of picks before reconvening on Vegas' shores. Let the pillaging begin.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Game Theory NFL Picks Week 2

Dialed up 5 picks up on the phone to prosperity Theorists. Vegas refused to answer some calls yesterday and for that, we owe them. Prepare to copy:

Giants -7 Vs Bucs- Gerald McCoy of the Bucs did a great job getting pressure on Cam Newton last week and essentially helping shut down their running game. The Giants aren't necessarily a better running team but Eli Manning is much more adept at handling pressure and getting the ball out of his hands. He should be able to do that coupled with some timely runs in the face of pressure to tack some points on at home. The Bucs were anything but impressive offensively themselves against a Carolina defense that isn't exactly on the Giants level up front. I look for a strong performance after that opening loss by the Giants front four and a 21-10 type of win.

New England -14 Vs Arizona- Who's afraid of Kevin Kolb? Maybe Skelton plays? Who cares. Defensively the Cardinals can't match up with Gronk or Hernandez and putting up points should be an easy "welcome to the new season and sorry we blew another Super Bowl" gift to the New England fans. Cash grab.

Baltimore +3 At Philly- This one sets my "Free Money" alarm off. Either I'm reading into this one way too much or Vegas is extremely high on the Eagles for reasons unknown. Vick looked terrible against a decent Browns defense but they aren't the Ravens and Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson have Hip and Hamstring problems. Not exactly conducive to explosive playmaking. Baltimore had a second half offensive explosion and have a ton of weapons that will exploit the Eagles lackluster secondary. I think the Ravens win this one outright and the Eagles begin their free fall from respectability.

Houston -7 at Jacksonville- The Jags got Jones-Drew back but unfortunately they still are missing everything offensively that the Texans possess, primarily a capable QB and productive WR's. Oh, and a defense. The Houston Texans may have very well ended up in the Super Bowl last season were it not for some key injuries. This year is definitely within the realm of possibility and games like this one against an inferior division opponent are the kind that Super Bowl contenders steam roll through. Look for Houston to have no problem in doing so.

Atlanta -3 Vs Denver- Matt Ryan mirrors the guy on the other sideline pretty closely at this point in their careers. Ryan has yet to find playoff success despite going in with home field advantages, much like Manning did in Indianapolis. A guy like Julio Jones could be the legitimate difference maker this year for the Falcons and while the Broncos still employ Champ Bailey, this isn't entirely the Bailey of old. Jones will get some victories one on one, its up to Ryan to find him. Michael Turner needs to pitch in and get some success on the ground to stop the Broncos pass rush. Manning is going to make his share of plays but they are still limited offensively when it comes to consistency outside of him. Big spot for a team with raised expectations. I don't think they're quite ready for it. Falcons take it by a touchdown.


GO GET PAID!!(We will)

@EricBandazewski on Twitter

Friday, September 14, 2012

Game Theory NCAA Picks Week 3

Time for some profiteering Theorists. Locked in 5 games for your monetary pleasure. 2 weeks from now we'll be in Vegas for some live action. May not get you a fancy write up but I'll provide whatever I opt for here or on Twitter at @EricBandazewski. Prepare to copy:

UMASS +47 at Michigan- Ton of points for Michigan to lay with that terrible defense they actually allow to be on scholarship. Denard Robinson will have no issue putting up his numbers and collecting his share of touchdowns, but he still is likely to make a bad throw or three and chances are at least a few drives will stall. Michigan has to essentially get up by 7 touchdowns. It's possible considering UMASS has scored but 6 points in two games, I just have no faith in Michigan's defense overall, especially not to take the Minutemen seriously. Michigan 56-10.

Boise St -21 Vs Miami of Ohio- Tough opening loss on the road to Sparty but the Broncos look to have every bit of as solid of a defense as last season to bail out their evolving offense as they look to replace Kellen Moore. Joe Southwick did OK all things considered and with two weeks to prepare for their home opener on the blue turf, Boise should get back to their blow out ways against a Miami defense that will struggle against the sophisticated play calling of Chris Peterson.

Virginia Tech -10 At Pitt- Pitt has had Tech's number recently but this is bad version of the Panther clan. VT survived a tough test early against Georgia Tech before putting together a drubbing in week 2. This team knows who they are and they know they are better than Pitt regardless of the setting this year. Logan Thomas needs to find some more room on the ground but he protects the ball and throws it to the team with the right colored jersey on. Sure wish Jay Cutler did that. That will be enough for coverage. Tech by 2 touchdowns.

Stanford +9 Vs USC- The hype machine comes to down. Last week we pulled the trigger on Syracuse as a 4 touchdown dog in unpublished action just to test out what most astute ATS'ers probably have picked up on; USC is way overvalued. ESPN has an obsession with them and so do their fans, thus driving up the lines artificially, as with this one. Stanford has owned USC when it comes to the number and especially at home. Josh Nunes is a pretty solid QB who can spread the ball around to 4 different receivers. They may not all play on Sunday's like Matt Barkley's but they are sound at what they do. Stanford still employs that Pro Set offense and has the bodies on the line to do it. Look for a good game here that could very well come down to the final possession.

Northern Illinois -3 at Army- Army in a bad spot for the second week in a row. Jordan Lynch is a dual-threat behind Center and Army isn't constructed to deal with players of that ilk. They had their doors blown off last week in San Diego and while they should add a few more points to the score board this time out, they just don't have the offensive fire power to keep up with the Huskies.

Live action!

Go Get Paid!! (I will. Word.)

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Game Theory Recap Week 2

Well, as I said, that didn't take long to return to profitability! A 5-2 weekend beating up the number brings us up to 6-5 on the young season. Hello money! Thanks Vegas.

Two big bets on the College Football side of the house. One was Air Force at +21 who exposed Michigan's defense for what it is, terrible. They appear to have seriously regressed from last season. The other was San Diego State -6 at home to Army. Yeah, that one got ugly as we had hoped. So ugly that one of the 5 games on the college slate will house one of those two teams again. All the more reason for your continued reading.

On the NFL side of the house, we tackled both games we picked. I warned about some of the numbers moving, specifically that Rams/Lions game. I talked myself out of it but maybe some of you picked up what I put down. Not sure yet how many NFL games I'll toss up but I've decided rather than a combined post as in years past with all of the action, I'll be posting on separate days for College Football and the NFL. Until that time, keep your ear to the grind stone.

Saturday, September 08, 2012

Game Theory NFL Picks Week 1

I'm still slightly perturbed with what went down Wednesday night in New Jersey, New York, New whatever. I think Kevin Ogletree is still wide open in the end zone, down the sideline, in the flat, across the middle, in the locker room, in the parking lot and at the cash cage. Pick a spot, he's open. Thanks Giants. Oh, and you too, Vegas. Whatevs. Opening week cash to collect. Not really my favorite week to play as I like to see how teams look after playing a real game but I've spotted a few contests that should close the distance between Vegas and ourselves. Prepare to copy:

New England -4 At Tennessee- There's always 1 game a week in any sport that just stands out like a respectable, tax paying, employed and showered citizen at an Occupy Wall Street rally. This would be that game. I know Titans coach Mike Munchak has some respectable defensive chops but in order to execute those standards, one needs personnel. Quick, name me a Pro Bowl caliber player on the Titans defense. Now name one on the Patriots offense. See where I'm going with this? Unless Tom Brady all of a sudden forgot how to complete a forward pass, this one could get out of hand. Pats are built for shoot outs, Jake Locker is beginning his first season as an NFL starter. This isn't rocket surgery. Let's hope Vegas doesn't pick up the phone. Pats big.

San Diego +1 At Oakland- If nothing more than the fact that someone has to win. The annual Monday nighter in Oakland where on a positive note, 70% of the country will be asleep and not watching. San Diego is due to have a bounce back year because Phillip Rivers is better than he was last season. The Raiders are the Raiders still as evidenced by the desperation move to get Carson Palmer mid-season, the firing of another coach who again can make a case for taking the team in the right direction and because they actually let their best QB, Jason Campbell walk for pennies rather than instituting a legit QB competition. Also gone is Michael Bush, leaving Darren McFadden to try and not do up to this point what he's done best, watch games from the sideline due to injury. The Chargers have their own Training Room Hero in Ryan Mathews who will be sans pads once again due to some health issue. Overall, the talent margin between these two teams isn't as close as last season's dual 8-8 records illustrate, and I think Carson Palmer is abysmal when it counts while Rivers will make plays. Chargers win outright.

That's all for the opening week. Lots of lines moved late. I think the Lions were a good bet at 7 but even though they should cover the 9, I don't trust it and I definitely don't know what I'm getting with Sam Bradford and the Rams. That's what Week 1 in the NFL is for Theorists. Watch, scribe some notes and I'll see you back here week 2.

GO GET PAID!! (I need to)

Friday, September 07, 2012

Game Theory NCAA Picks Week 2

Perhaps we should change the name of this space to "Game Proved" since the only "Theory" I have proven thus far is that 25% accuracy is code for broke. Don't worry, Vegas wasn't taken down or built over one College Football weekend and a Wednesday NFL game. I've tightened up my shot group, time to send rounds back down range in the effort to pillage the coffers of Vegas. Prepare to copy:

Air Force +21 At Michigan- Never have I seen an elite college player in recent memory totally fall to the occasion like Denard Robinson did. Whatever Brady Hoke was thinking of by trying to turn Robinson into a pocket passer and opting to ignore his 4.3 speed makes me want to ignore this 3 touchdown edge. We all know Michigan can't cover spreads over 20 consistently, if barely at all. Air Force is a disciplined team and they can score some points, and they will do that despite being in the Big House. It hasn't been as much of a home field advantage the past 4 years as you would think, given the 111,000+ fans' nature. Michigan is the better team but they aren't 21 points better than anyone in college football right now.

Nevada Pick'em Vs South Florida- Who do you like coming off a "tune up" game more, a Nevada team that went on the road and upset Cal in a belligerent environment or a South Florida team that looked rather lame at home against Chattanooga in a non-covering effort? I'm feeling the Wolf Pack in their home opener and I'll be damned if I am going to trust my money in the hands of a Skip Holz club on the road out west, especially when they are a paltry 2-7 against the number in games where the line is +3 to -3. Translation: They hate to cover against equal opposition. Story of the USF Bulls life. Wolf Pack easy.

Notre Dame -14 Vs Purdue- Purdon't loves to falsify their value almost as much as Notre Dame. Robert Marve looked great against a tire fire Eastern Kentucky team but Notre Dame's defense is going to pose a slightly different challenge, especially during their home opener where there will be just enough undeserved hype to equal an extra point or two, which we may need. Brian Kelly looks to finally have found a quarterback who can execute his offense rather than having to settle for some Irish kid they found in the bleachers downing Baby Guinness's. Non-Irish QB piles on the points. Notre Dame by enough.

LSU -24 Vs Washington- There was nothing impressive about the Huskies squeaking by a San Diego State team which largely resembles nothing of the up and coming program it once was under former coaches Jim Harbaugh and Brady Hoke thanks to a mass exodus of transfers. Now Washington must point the sled in the direction of Death Valley. At night. Featuring the finest group of citizenry the state of Louisiana has to offer. Did I mention they might still be lubricated from celebrating the passing of Hurricane Isaac? Well they might and they definitely will be borderline comatose by kickoff. Washington is going to have a long flight home. Too bad. LSU by 27.

San Diego State -6 Vs Army- Speaking of the Aztecs, why not earn a little extra income off of them? Bad spot for Army here opening the season on the road. The Aztecs have 3 decent running backs and were able to put up 200 yards on the road in Washington. One thing that will always plague the service academy's but specifically Army, is their lack of size on the lines and on defense due to their weight restrictions. For that reason, I can't see them slowing down the San Diego State ground game for very long. On offense, Army is a one trick pony. That helps a team like the Aztecs who can prepare all off-season for their home opener which all programs do in an effort to put on a decent show for the student body. Aztecs cover nicely.

5 games for your monetary pleasure. NFL picks tomorrow night.

GO GET PAID!! (I think I will for a change)

Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Game Theory NFL Season Opener

Smell that Theorists? No, it's not BS, besides Obama doesn't speak until Thursday night at the Convention. What you smell is money! Free money at that, a Democrats dream! Okay, enough political rabble rousing. We all know the pursuit of currency and the taking down of Vegas is a bi-partisan effort, an effort that I will gladly spearhead below. Prepare to copy!:

Giants -4 Vs Dallas- There is no team I love betting against more than the Dallas Cowboys. They are the New York Yankees of the NFL in that they are over hyped and always over valued thanks to emotional fans who falsify the lines. The only difference is the Yankees actually win. No greater trend deserves being broadcast than the Cowboys 0-6 record against the number within the division last year. If that doesn't illustrate my point, nothing will. From a personnel standpoint, the Cowboys are banged up and Tony Romo's safety net Jason Witten is still not good enough medically to make me worry about him, if he even plays. Dez Bryant isn't 100% either, in fact there isn't a forward pass catching or rock toting option that isn't listed on the Cowboys official injury report. Not the best set of circumstances to open up on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs with. Not to mention, the Giants employ the most difficult defensive line to defend and have entirely too many weapons for a consistently inconsistent Cowboys secondary to defend against. Could be close as a lot of games within this division are usually but I don't see it. Giants by 17.

Full slate of games coming by the end of the week.

GO GET PAID!! (I will.)